POS-2026-3019 : Optimising vaccine evaluation in real time using health records (OVERTURE)

This project aims to assist the NHS in planning and delivering future vaccination campaigns. We want to understand how well vaccines work (this is called ‘vaccine effectiveness’) against respiratory viruses, both overall and in different groups of people. We also want to identify groups of people with low vaccination rates and develop strategies to boost vaccine uptake in these groups.

Researchers often estimate vaccine effectiveness using tests for infection from selected hospitals and general practices. Because this data only covers a small proportion of actual infections, it is not possible to break down estimates by patient characteristics such as age. However, vaccines are less effective in certain groups, such as older adults and people with pre-existing health conditions. Effectiveness of some vaccines decreases over time after vaccination, which is called ‘waning’. Vaccination rates also vary across the population, leading to differences in how many infections people get and their overall health.

We will work out the best methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – a common infection that can cause severe illness in infants and older adults. We will calculate vaccine effectiveness based on factors including age, ethnicity, and pre-existing conditions that affect the immune system. We will investigate whether vaccine effectiveness wanes over time and, if so, when it is best to administer vaccines in winter. We will study differences in vaccine uptake between different groups of people. We will collaborate with members of the public and health professionals to develop strategies for improving vaccination rates. 

We will share our findings with policy-makers to help plan future vaccination campaigns. Ultimately, this work will help the NHS to reduce the impact of illnesses caused by COVID-19, influenza, and RSV.