POS-2026-3014 : Detecting the Impact of NICE Guidance On Primary Care Prescribing

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) provides advice and guidance on medical treatments and procedures to improve healthcare in England. When NICE approves a treatment, it must be made available through the NHS within three months. However, it often takes time for new guidelines to be fully put into everyday practice. This can result in different quality of care received by patients across England. Poor uptake of guidelines has been linked to worse health outcomes for patients. There is currently no consistent, standardised way for NICE to monitor how their guidance is put into practice.

Heart and circulatory diseases (cardiovascular diseases) are still a leading cause of death in the UK. Recent changes to NICE guidelines widened the use of statins (medicines that lower cholesterol) to prevent heart attacks, strokes, and other heart-related problems. These changes mean that more people with lower risk of heart disease can now receive treatment. Two new treatments, inclisiran and tirzepatide have been made available to treat people who already have heart conditions.

I will use data from OpenSAFELY-TPP to study how GP practices react to changes in guidance. Using statistical change-point detection methods, I aim to create tools that allow NICE to monitor how long it takes to put guidance into practice. This will help identify inequalities in prescribing.