Fit notes associated with COVID-19 in 24 million patients’ primary care records
Fit notes associated with COVID-19 in 24 million patients’ primary care records: A cohort study in OpenSAFELY-TPP.
How to cite: Schaffer AL, Park RY, Tazare J, et al. Fit notes associated with COVID-19 in 24 million patients’ primary care records: A cohort study in OpenSAFELY-TPP. medRxiv 2023.07.28.23293269v1; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.07.28.23293269
Abstract
Background
Fit notes (“sick notes”) are issued by general practitioners (GPs) when a person can’t work for health reasons and is an indication of the public health and economic burden for people recovering from COVID-19.
Method
With NHS England approval, we used routine clinical data from >24 million patients to compare fit note incidence in people 18-64 years with and without evidence of COVID-19 in 2020, 2021 and 2022. We fit Cox regression models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios, overall and by time post-diagnosis and within demographic subgroups.
Results
We identified 365,421, 1,206,555 and 1,321,313 people with evidence of COVID-19 in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The fit note rate was 4.88 per 100 person-months (95%CI 4.83-4.93) in 2020, 2.66 (95%CI 2.64-2.67) in 2021, and 1.73 (95%CI 1.72-1.73) in 2022. Compared with the age, sex and region matched general population, the hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for demographics and clinical characteristics over the follow-up period was 4.07 (95%CI 4.02-4.12) in 2020 decreasing to 1.57 (95%CI 1.56-1.58) in 2022. The HR was highest in the first 30 days post-diagnosis in all years.
Conclusion
Despite likely underestimation of the fit note rate, we identified a considerable increase among people with COVID-19, even in an era when most people are vaccinated. Most fit notes are associated with the acute phase of the disease, but the increased risk several months post-diagnosis provides further evidence of the long-term impact.